- Matthias Garschagen, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management & Adaptive Planning Section, United Nations University, UNU-EHS
- Inke Schauser, German Federal Environmental Agency, Germany
Understanding risk is the basis for strategies and actions to reduce and manage losses and damages triggered by adverse events. The term ‘risk’ is often connected with a value of probability of occurrence calculated by statistical methods and based on event databases and modelling results. Research and practice has increasingly strived for the integration of vulnerability and resilience indicators into these equations. However, ‘understanding’ risk in the sense of scrutinizing the underlying root causes strongly relies on qualitative, narrative and subjective data. Drawing a holistic picture of risk as a basis for future risk reduction actions thus needs to integrate both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. The combined use of both approaches in practice faces a variety of challenges ranging from methodologies issues to user / decision maker requests for evidence (often expressed in (money) values and numbers). The motivation for this session originated from two international expert workshops on qualitative and quantitative approaches carried out in 2014 and 2015. It aimed at sharing achieved results, at embracing new and innovative approaches and at triggering discussions with a wider audience about the challenges of integrated risk analyses.
Dealing with climate-related risks and uncertainties – Reinhard Mechler
Qualitative and quantitative approaches for assessing climate change impacts on future infrastructures – Inke Schauder