Date: Monday, May 14, 11:00am – 1:00pm
Venue: Sala C3
A robust technique to ‘evaluate’ and ‘quantify’ the risk
Destruction due to short-lived weather phenomena such as tropical storms, tornados, dust storms, thunderstorms, hailstorms, wind storms, and cloud bursts, are a serious concern globally. Additionally, there are increasing instances of hydro-meteorological events being impacted by climate change. One of the approaches to study these extreme events is through numerical modeling. In recent years, numerical methods have been used effectively to predict such extreme events. This is achieved by solving the governing equations to determine the response of the extreme event. Availability of high-speed computers and advanced satellite technology has made it easier to numerically predict the natural hazards intensity in real time. Two of these sophisticated numerical models are:
- Numerical Ocean Models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. The devastation due to the combined action of storm surge flooding and extreme wind waves generated by tropical cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions globally. For this purpose, the advanced two-dimensional depth integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model is practical, for the simulation of surges, and associated water levels off the coasts. This model has also been recognized by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S)
- Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather, based on current weather conditions. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is one of the meteorological Limited Area Models (LAMs) widely used in numerical weather prediction. The model is capable of capturing short-lived weather phenomena such as tropical storms, tornados, dust storms, thunderstorms hailstorms, wind storms, and cloud bursts, etc., from their genesis to dissipation stages.
Using these latest sophisticated numerical models, high-resolution hazard scenarios can be generated and further integrated with vulnerability functions, and exposures datasets to come out with real-time and meaningful risk assessment. RMSI believes that accurate prediction of these event’s intensity and extent (hazard scenario) can be a crucial input to governments and disaster authorities that can help them in developing a disaster management plan, vulnerability reduction plan and for emergency response during extreme events.