CAPRA: Measuring the unmeasurable!
Information
Session Lead: Omar D. Cardona Evaluacion de Riesgos Naturales-AL
Website: http://www.ecapra.org/en/
Members: 212
Latest Activity: March 28 2010
See presentations from the CAPRA session at the Understanding Risk conference HERE.
CAPRA-Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Launch of an Innovative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model and Initiative for Disaster Risk Management Effectiveness.
This is the launch of CAPRA, the "Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment" Initiative! You are invited to be part of the CAPRA community.
Understand disaster risk due to natural hazard events creates incentives for countries to develop tools to reduce potential damages. This is the reason why CAPRA, a comprehensive disaster risk assessment platform, was developed in partnership with Central American governments with the support of the Central American Coordination Centre for Disaster Prevention (CEPREDENAC), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) and the World Bank. CAPRA is based on a probabilistic risk assessment methodology and is composed of a set of tools for the evaluation and communication of risk at different territorial levels. CAPRA allows the user to evaluate losses on exposed elements using a probabilistic metrics, such as the exceedance probability curve, expected annual loss and probable maximum loss. The platform’s development is oriented to facilitate decision making including disaster risk management in the process. With CAPRA is possible, for example, to design risk transfer instruments and to evaluate probabilistic cost-benefit ratio. CAPRA provides an innovative tool for decision makers to analyze the net benefits of the risk reduction strategies, such as retrofitting of public infraestructure. CAPRA outputs and results can be used for land use planning, to estimate loss scenarios for emergency response, to build early warning systems and on-line loss assessment mechanisms, and for disaster risk holistic evaluation using indicators. Examples of CAPRA applications and capabilities will be include in this session to illustrate this innovative open architecture ad open source platform.
How we calculate and include one or more hazards in a risk model? How we can represent and assign values to exposure data? How to define and assign vulnerability functions to each asset or exposed element? How to deal with the inherent uncertainties when we estimate risk?
Your comments, concerns and thinkings are welcome!
Discussion Forum
Members (212)
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Comment wall (34 comments)
CAPRA will be presented in the 4CNIS (4th National Conference of Earthquake Engineering of Spain), May 18 and 19, 2011, in Granada. The National Association of Earthquake Engineering requested to develop a special section to describe the different modules on seismic hazard, exposure/vulnerability, the CAPRA-GIS for risk modeling and an application for the evaluation of risk from a holistic perspective (the Barcelona case study of MOVE project; a FP7 project of European Community).
CAPRA was presented in the Fourteenth European Conference on Earthquake Engineering (14ECEE 2010), 30 August - 03 September, in Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia and it will be presented in the International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management (ISRERM2010), September 23-26, in Shanghai, China.
Now you can see the videos of the CAPRA session. Look for CAPRA in PRESENTATIONS option above.
CAPRA will be in AGU 2010 Meeting of the Americas. The Meeting is being held in Foz do Iguaçu, 08–12 August 2010. CAPRA is one of the presentations in the session: S32A. Seismic Microzoning and Risk Management in Latin America, Wednesday 08/11/2010 10:30 AM, Salao Iguacu I.
You can find the "Ignite Presentation" on CAPRA, during the UR Conference in Washington, in the page and blog of Omar D. Cardona (see and search the name in the above option: MEMBERS), and the presentations made during the CAPRA session in UR, in above option: PRESENTATIONS. Now we expect to continue these discussions to share comments, experiences, suggestions, applications, news, etc. regarding Multi-Hazard Disaster Risk Modelling and CAPRA.
The CAPRA session in the UR Conference will be at June 2, from 11:00 - 12:30 in the World Bank Main Complex in the H Street, NW. The CAPRA panelists will be Gabriel Bernal, Luis E. Yamin and Eduardo Reinoso. They will speak about the CAPRA multi-hazard approach, CAPRA exposure and vulnerability modeling, and CAPRA risk assessment respectively. During the Q&A space we expect the participation of several of you that will be in Washington. After the conference we will include the contributions made during the session in this platform for information of everyone.
Don´t forget make your registration (see above option) in the Understanding Risk conference that will be held from June 1 to 6 in the World Bank, Washington. We will have a CAPRA session to discuss the main topics developed on this virtual forum. It will be the opportunity to launch CAPRA initiative. A set of presentations will be made on the technical issues of CAPRA and about its applications. Users and stakeholders will be very welcome to discuss the scope, possibilities, limitations, concerns and challenges of this open source risk modeling platform.
I am the Director of the Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and would like to share with you all the activities that the Office has developed in the last three years in the area of natural hazards and disasters, which would, I think, fit well with the themes you have been discussing. You are also welcome to visit our website www.icsu-lac.org.
Since its inauguration in 2007, the Regional Office has developed science plans in defined priority areas, one of which Natural Hazards and Disasters. A Scientific Planning Groups was appointed to develop proposals that reviewed the current status of the priority area on the region and to formulate a set of detailed objectives and targeted areas of research to be developed in the next few years.
After one and a half years of intense work, this group produced the document “Understanding and Managing Risk Associated with Natural Hazards: An Integrated Scientific Approach in Latin America and the Caribbean”, which can be reached at the following web address: http://www.icsu-lac.org/icsuzone/icsuzone.html;
The main objective of the proposed research program is to contribute to better and more effective understanding of disaster risk and disaster risk management in the Latin American and Caribbean regions, promoting research in an integrated interdisciplinary framework.
The proposed research program has several specific objectives, which include the promotion of interdisciplinary research on the risk and disaster problematic. The program proposes to draw together climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction research; as well as the development and promotion of methodologies for integrating social and natural science in interdisciplinary research formats.
The program, strives to promote better relations and understanding between the scientific and government policy communities, as well as between scientific and civil society and private sector beneficiary communities, developing methods for better transmitting and relaying information and knowledge to these.
Another important objective is to support and promote research and capacity building efforts from a holistic perspective, stimulating the creation of relevant institutional frameworks to achieve this.
The program proposes the creation of a post impact multidisciplinary analysis and review board and research capability capable of rapidly producing post mortem or forensic type analysis of disaster causation and impacts that are able to fuel public debate and lead to review of existing practices and failings..
Four different research and action themes have been identified that require the differential participation or interaction of natural, basic, applied and social sciences in the understanding, design and increased effectiveness of prevention, mitigation or response based interventions.
Finally, I would like to point out that in session 6.4 the document explicitly suggests that setting up Disaster Risk Modeling Platforms is an important activity for Latin America and the Caribbean, very much in the model of CAPRA.
So I cannot but commend CAPRA that fits so well in the proposed actions of the ICSU-LAC document and hope that it will be indeed a platform that will allow a strong collaboration among scientists but also between ICSU, with its global program in Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, the ICSU Regional Office, with the proposal mentioned above, and the network that is being created by CAPRA.
Iranian cleric: Promiscuous women cause quakes
When developing multihazard and risk assessment under available or in construction scientific model such CAPRA, One of the main challenges is to avoid as much as possible the uncertainties and weakness on the analysis and to produce and have available outcomes to compare, discuss and share it with a wide variety of users and decision makers. CAPRA provides a mechanism to do so, what is a key issue is to provide ways to make it available for a wide variety of analyst as an alternative to build one, various or combined future scenarios and to recognize that is been done based on the best scientific criteria under the best known and structured data of each element and composed indicators (including uncertainties). Since risk is so dynamic and scenarios can change so rapidly the method must give us the chance to adapt, modified and provided outcomes, there will be needs to improved models and methods to obtain better approaches to know risk and particularly when special sector need. There is a big challenge but an opportunity on this issue, and is to include on any case to other actors as part of the permanent analysis and understanding risk on anybody´s backyard.
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