 Floods and Droughts: Predicting and Assessing the Risks
Information Session Lead: Lead: Paolo Reggiani, Deltares
Members: 109
See PowerPoint presentations from the Floods and Droughts Session at the Understanding Risk Conference HERE. Discussion ForumMembers (109)
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Comment wall (10 comments)
Hi all,This is dipankar from Oxfam.We are working on the issues of drought management and over the years, the efforts have been scaled from being a WASH specialist in the region to a more advocacy oriented development paradigm.In this regard, it would be good to hear from the group the need for an effective drought declaration criteria and the related advocacy to go with it. .
Absolutely relevant Ole. We should bring the topic of importance of open source systems out in the conference session. You are most welcome on this.
Regards Paolo .
Dear all
This is just to let you know that Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University have developed an open source hydrodynamic model called ANUGA (http://datamining.anu.edu.au/anuga) which is now being used for flood and tsunami impact modelling. In fact, the 'Last Mile' Tsunami impact study at Padang, Indonesia by the Franzius-Institut for Hydraulic, Waterways and Coastal Engineering used ANUGA (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/drrconference/presentations/TSchlurmann.pdf).
This was made possible because the software was developed as Open Source, so perhaps it is of interest to this session?
Thanks for you timeOle Nielsen .
Dear participants
Thus far we have nominated 4 invited speakers, that will adress the forecasting and risk assesment inherent to river floods. The speakers are"
Rafael Oreamuno (Costa Rica)Ezio Todini (Italy)Tom Graziano (US National Weather Service)Rowan Douglas (Willis UK)
Tha speakers have joined our network and you will soon be able to see their bio's published on their site.
Sincere regards
Paolo Reggiani .
Hello friends. I just joint the group. My name is Rafael Oreamuno. I am a civil engineer and I work for the Universidad de Costa Rica as professor in the fields of Hydrology, Water Resources Engineering and Mathematical Modelling. .
I am currently looking into ways to calculate the risk of agricultural drought. I was thinking about using historical agricultural drought data in combination with future climate data in order to predict the probability or likelihood of an agricultural drought occurring in say 1 to 5 years down the road. Is anybody else working on this type of project? .
Hello friendsMyself Dr.G.P.GanapathyI am new to this group .
Thanks Chris for linking in the flood risk maps derived from TRIM products. I had a look at the flood hazard maps that were established on the basis of hydrological modelling. Do you have any idea what type of hydrological (rainfall-runoff) models are being used to produce these risk maps?
I agree with you that there is significant potential for synergies at the interface between meteo forecasting and hydrology in the filed of risk assesment and prediction. It is one of the more important topics of this working group at Understanding Risk to explore this potential and build important links.
FEWS (Famine Early Warning System) is well known and already online since quite some time. Excellent system.
Thank you very much for your contribution .
Hi - I have been working with UN-SPIDER since last Fall's cyclones in the Pacific to task various satellite platforms in order to observe peak flooding events, and have been running various rough-and-tumble hydrology models using the 'GRASS' GIS, for evacuation, refugee camp evaluation, etc As with most things, there are clearly 2 timelines: tactical, and strategic. For tactical predictions, since I need ~48 hrs to task a satellite acquisition, I have been using:http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/gfs_geos5_potential_floo...andhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
There was a real strong showing of weather prediction folks at the OpenGIS mtg a few months back at Google, and lots to be done there. For seasonal predictions related to agricultural risk, people should be aware of FEWS-net, www.fews.net, and Earthwatch's 'Cropcast' service. .
The provided movie shows an application of hydrological modelling in global assessments of water scarcity. The indicated change in water availability per capita has been analyzed for the period 1980-2090 with the use of climate data from the IPCC and population growth estimates from IIASA. The water availability is modelled with a global hydrological model. Water scarcity is estimated by assuming the available water is used for the in-situ people only. The movie clearly shows that the changes in risk of water scarcity at an annual basis is much more affected by population change than by climate change. Note that at smaller time scales, this could be considerably different, because in prolongued dry seasons, water stress could easily occur in many regions that are here considered to be in good shape.